Sun Paper (002078) In-depth Research Report: Why Imported Waste Paper Tightens Sun Paper, Benefits Clearly
Imports of waste paper are gradually tightening, and a total ban on imports is not far away.
The original waste paper import policy was gradually tightened. By reducing the amount of imported waste paper, improving the objective quality standards in imported waste paper, and reducing the amount of waste waste imports by 100%, the US waste paper inspection and other policies have been adopted.Banning the import of waste has become a highly certain policy guide.
The amount of waste paper imports has been shrinking and tightening year by year, and the gap in waste paper is about to appear.
In 2018, there has been a noticeable tightening of waste paper imports, but a large imbalance in the supply and demand of waste paper has occurred again in 2018.
Short-term inventory continues to be depleted. In 2018, the inventory of manufacturers of national waste yellow paperboard continued to decline, from 7 at the 北京桑拿洗浴保健 beginning of the year.
The 9-day inventory goes down to 5 of the year.
2 days inventory, de-stocking will help the domestic waste paper stocks go down one level.
At the same time, the annual macroeconomic fluctuations in 2018 have increased the output of corrugated board, which has affected the demand for waste paper.
We believe that the situation in the past 18 years may be the continuous de-waste paper inventory, restructuring of the trade war and other macro factors have the greatest marginal impact. At present, the waste paper mill inventory5.
The 2-day inventory is basically at an all-time low, with China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) at 50 in November.
2%, running below 50% for 6 consecutive months and returning to the extended range.
After the weakness of the H1 mechanism paper terminal 杭州桑拿 production and sales in 2018 and 2019, the PMI has returned to the extended range, and the terminal production and sales conditions in the mechanism will help improve.
It is estimated that the domestic waste paper recycling limit is 5500-6000 initial.
Domestic waste paper recycling is based on waste paper consumption. Only about 80% of domestic containerboard and corrugated paper consumption is kept domestically (20% of exports are exported indirectly to overseas). The wood pulp-based paper will not be recycled.Calculated after removing paper and other paper types, it is estimated that the recycling limit of domestic waste paper is 5500-6000 mm.
In place of discontinued raw materials, Sun Paper is leading the way.
Taiyang Paper is the first papermaking enterprise with obvious advantages in the overseas construction. At the same time, the company is actively engaged in domestic technology research and development to use semi-chemical pulp instead of waste paper to produce box board corrugated paper.The 40-inch semi-chemical pulp production line entered a stable production period in 2019. The 20-ton natural high-yield biomass fiber project is expected to be put into production in the fourth quarter of 2019.
(2) Laos 120 aims to advance the papermaking project steadily as planned.
At present, 40 initial recycled fiber pulp board production lines in the Laos 120 cardboard factory project are already in production, and 80 tons of final kraft boxboard is under construction.
The company’s current capacity of 160 boxes of cardboard and corrugated paper has 110 waste paper substitutes for raw materials. By 2020, the domestic waste paper shortage will increase, and Sun Paper is expected to benefit significantly.
The year of budget capacity expansion is approaching. Laos, Guangxi, and the Headquarters will work together to maintain the “strong push” level.
As of the end of 2018, the company’s three major businesses have a total capacity of about 602 tons. In addition, Northwest Guangxi, Laos container board and other projects are under construction.
On October 16, 2019, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region’s major projects were started intensively and the key project of Beihai City was started, as well as the ceremony of Guangxi Sun Paper’s annual output of 350 and the Linxi Pulp and Paper integration project at the main venue of Beihai and Tieshan Port.Differentiate the venue’s grand antiques.
2020-2021 will be a year of concentrated production of the company. We believe that Laos 80 will be inserted into cardboard, Guangxi 350 will be integrated with forest pulp and paper, and 45 will be replaced by cultural paper and supporting wood pulp. The production capacity of the company will be improved to increase production capacity.Costs continue to decrease, and the company’s average roe is expected to rise.
We maintain our forecast for the company’s net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021.
61 ppm, corresponding to the current maximum PE of 11.
4, 10, 7 times, maintaining the “strong push” level.
Due to the company’s leading waste paper pulp production capacity and domestic semi-chemical pulp production capacity, the company has benefited significantly in the context of the contraction of external waste imports, and its profitability is expected to continue to increase. It raises its target price to 12 yuan / share (13XPE for 20 years).
Risk reminder: The macroeconomic downturn is expected to affect demand, and the pattern of the paper industry is changing.